油气未来数年内仍将是主要燃料但生产商需加大投入

据普氏能源资讯2019年3月12日,休斯敦报道，资深行业观察家和大型石油公司长期首席执行官约翰·赫斯周一表示，尽管近几年来越来越多的可再生能源不断推动减少温室气体排放，然而，石油和天然气在接下来的至少15年内很可能仍是世界能源结构中的重要组成部分。

赫斯是在由IHS Market举办的2019年CERAWeek会议的一场有关石油公司战略的座谈会发表上述讲话的。赫斯表示，除非出现根本的新技术突破，否则石油和天然气很可能到2024年仍将占全球能源结构的一半左右。

但赫斯表示，上游产业投资不足和油价波动已导致生产商不敢提高资本预算。

赫斯指出：“最大的挑战……尤其是在经历了3年的熊市油价处在每桶40至50美元之间之后，如何在国内现金流受到相当大压力的情况下加大投资，才是关键所在。”

赫斯援引国际能源署（IEA）的估计，全球每年需要投资5800亿美元保持全球石油和天然气产量的足够增长来满足需求并抵消产量下降的影响。3年前，年开支是3500亿美元，两年前是3700亿美元，去年是4100亿美元，今年的支出估计在4200亿美元。

李峻    编译自    Platts

原文如下：

Oil, gas likely to stay major fuels for years, but producers need to spend more: John Hess

Despite increasing renewable energy in recent years and an ongoing push to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, oil and natural gas are likely to remain a major part of the world's energy mix for the next at least 15 years, veteran industry observer and John Hess, the long-time CEO of large oil company Hess Corp. said Monday.

Barring a radical new technology breakthrough, oil and gas are likely to still comprise about half the energy mix in 2040, John Hess said during a panel on oil company strategies amid a changing industry at 2019 CERAWeek by IHS Market.

But the upstream industry is not investing enough, and the volatility of oil prices have caused producers to shy away from raising their capital budgets, Hess said.

"The biggest challenge ... especially after having a bear market for three years where oil prices were $40-$50/b, is how to invest more even though internal cash flows have been stressed quite a bit," he said.

Hess cited the International Energy Agency's estimates that the world needs to invest $580 billion/year to keep global oil and gas growing enough to meet demand and offset production declines. Three years ago, $350 billion/year was spent, two years ago $370 billion, last year $410 billion, and the estimate for this year is $420 billion.