2019年亚洲石脑油面临供过于求的压力

据普氏能源资讯新加坡12月31日消息，随着中东和东南亚的主要生产商纷纷加大产量，而在4月至6月的蒸汽裂化装置维修季期间，东北亚的需求可能会下降，导致亚洲石脑油市场似乎将在2019年上半年面临下行压力。

市场消息来源称，随着越来越多的石脑油供应流入亚洲，2018年末在中东启动的新工厂将在2019年第一季度产生强烈影响（新工厂将在2019年初全面投入生产）。

阿布扎比国家石油公司或阿布扎比国家石油公司9月份在鲁瓦西炼油厂启动的新碳黑和延迟的焦化装置，将使石脑油年产量增加30万公吨。

巴林国家天然气公司（或称巴纳加斯）第三座日产量为3.5亿立方英尺的中央天然气工厂开始运营，该工厂预计将使巴纳加斯的石脑油年出口量增加一倍，达到36万公吨。

展望东亚，马来西亚30万桶/日的炼油和石化综合开发（RAPID项目）预计将在第一季度启动。

市场消息称，由马来西亚国家石油公司炼油厂和石油化工公司运营的，年产乙烯能力130万公吨的蒸汽裂化装置的启动，可能会吸收新炼油厂增加的一部分石脑油产量。

的供应将来自澳大利亚，预计在2019年，日本Inpex公司将从澳大利亚装载10批凝析油，这种质量与公开规格石脑油相似，这10批凝析油来自于澳大利亚达尔文港的Ichthys LNG 项目，每一批货物为32万桶，即35555公吨，该工厂的第一批凝析油货物于上周被运往亚洲的最终用户。另一方面，随着第二季度的临近，在北亚，特别是韩国，处于一个严格规定的蒸汽裂化装置维修季节中，石蜡石脑油的需求可能会减弱。

詹晓晶摘自普氏能源资讯

原文如下：

Outlook 2019: Asian naphtha under pressure as supply threatens to outweigh demand 

The Asian physical naphtha market looks set to face downside pressure in the first half of 2019 as key producers in the Middle East and Southeast Asia move to ramp up production, while demand in Northeast Asia could falter during a heavy steam cracker maintenance season over April-June. 

The impact of new plants starting up in the Middle East in late 2018 -- which will ramp up to full production in early 2019 -- will be keenly felt in the first quarter as more naphtha supply flows into Asia, market sources said. 

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co or ADNOC's new carbon black and delayed coker unit that started up in September at Ruwais West refinery will add 300,000 mt/year of naphtha production. 

Bahrain National Gas, or Banagas, has started operations at its third 350 MMcf/d Central Gas Plant, which is slated to double Banagas' annual naphtha exports to 360,000 mt. 

Looking east, Malaysia's 300,000 b/d Refinery and Petrochemical Integrated Development, or RAPID is expected to start up in Q1. 

However, the startup of a steam cracker operated by Petronas Refinery & Petrochemical Corporation with an ethylene production capacity of 1.3 million mt/year at the site could absorb some of the incremental naphtha production from the new refinery, market sources said. 

Additional supply will also come from Australia, from where Japan's Inpex is expected to load 10 cargoes of plant condensate, a quality similar to open spec naphtha, from the new Ichthys LNG project from Darwin in 2019. Each clip is 320,000 barrels or 35,555 mt. The plant's first condensate cargo was shipped to an Asian end-user last week. On the flip side, demand might soften as the second quarter approaches as paraffinic naphtha demand will likely ease during a heavy scheduled maintenance season at steam cracker units in North Asia, especially in South Korea.