IEA：全球天然气行业未来5年将大幅增长

据TABNinfo.com网站7月8日华盛顿报道，国际能源署（IEA）日前在其最新的市场预测报告中表示，在未来5年里，来自中国的强劲需求增长、更大的工业需求以及来自美国不断增加的供应将改变全球天然气市场。

根据IEA最新年度天然气市场报告《2018年天然气市场》所说，全球天然气需求将以年均1.6%的速度增长，到2023年将达到略高于4.1万亿立方米的水平，远远超过2017年的3.74万亿立方米。

国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔说：“在未来5年里，全球天然气市场将被三大结构性转变重塑。中国将在未来两至三年内成为全球最大的天然气进口国。美国的天然气生产和出口将大幅增长。天然气工业将取代发电成为增长最快的行业。尽管天然气拥有光明的未来，但这个行业仍面临许多严峻挑战，其中包括相对于新兴市场的其他燃料天然气价格仍需维持在可承受的水平以及天然气工业在整个价值链中需要遏制甲烷泄漏。

由于受到旨在通过从煤炭转向天然气来减少当地空气污染政策的支撑，中国天然气需求预计在2017年至2023年期间将增长60%。仅中国一国就将占到未来5年全球天然气需求增长的37%，中国在2019年前将超过日本成为全球最大的天然气进口国。IEA还预计，在强劲的经济增长和改善空气质量努力的推动下，亚洲其他地区（包括南亚和东南亚）的天然气使用量将出现强劲增长。

李峻 编译自 TABNinfo.com

原文如下：

Global gas sector set for big growth over 5 years: IEA

Strong demand growth from China, greater industrial demand, and rising supplies from the US, will transform global natural gas markets over the next five years, said the International Energy Agency in its latest market forecast.

Global gas demand will grow at an average rate of 1.6 per cent a year, reaching just over 4,100 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2023, up from 3,740 bcm in 2017, according to the IEA’s latest annual gas market report titled “Gas 2018”.

“In the next five years, global gas markets are being re-shaped by three major structural shifts,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director.

“China is set to become the world’s largest gas importer within two-to-three years, US production and exports will rise dramatically strongly and industry is replacing power generation as the leading growth sector. While gas has a bright future, the industry faces tough challenges. These include the need for gas prices to remain affordable relative to other fuels in emerging markets and for industry to curb methane leaks along the value chain.”

Chinese gas demand is forecast to grow by 60 per cent between 2017-2023, underpinned by policies aimed at reducing local air pollution by switching from coal to gas. China alone accounts for 37 per cent of the growth in global demand in the next five years and becomes the largest natural gas importer by 2019, overtaking Japan. The IEA also forecasts strong growth in gas use in other parts of Asia, including in South and Southeast Asia, driven by strong economic growth and efforts to improve air quality.