美国汽油库存大幅下降 油价上涨

据Oil & Gas Journal网站4月11日休斯顿报道 美国轻质低硫原油价格4月10日在纽约市场上涨，5月和6月的合约均在美国能源信息管理局（EIA）报告汽油库存大幅下降后结算在64美元/桶以上。

尽管截至4月5日的一周原油库存较前一周增加了700万桶，但汽油库存下降770万桶（为2017年9月以来最大降幅）的消息与分析师预期的接近200万桶的降幅形成了鲜明对比（OGJ，2019年4月11日）。

纽约能源避险基金的一个合作伙伴John Kilduff说： “尽管原油库存增长的幅度几乎相等，但在进入夏季驾车高峰期之际，重点则在汽油。” 

欧佩克成员国和其他非欧佩克生产国（欧佩克+）的减产加上地缘政治与外交因素，一定程度上也提振了油价。

加拿大皇家银行资本市场分析师在4月11日的一份报告中表示，欧佩克+已经不止一次回应了这一减产呼吁，他们将在此前商定的减产水平上再减产30万桶/日。虽然尼日利亚和阿尔及利亚等一些国家仍然没有达到减产要求，但沙特已经通过向配额以下再次减产30万桶/日的石油，将其出口量降至700万桶/日，超出了其职责范围进行了补偿。所以我们的基本观点仍然是，欧佩克将在6月会议上宣布将减产幅度扩大，通过清理资产负债并将定价维持在接近财政收支平衡点的水平，对于许多国家来说，这一水平处于75-80美元/桶的价格区间或更高。

王  磊    摘译自    Oil & Gas Journal

原文如下：

Oil prices rise as data shows large US gasoline inventory drawdown

US light, sweet crude oil prices were up Apr. 10 on the New York market, with both the May and June contracts settling above $64/bbl following a steep drop in gasoline stocks as reported by the US Energy Information Administration.

While crude inventories for the week ended Apr. 5 were up by 7 million bbl from the previous week, news of a gasoline inventories drawdown of 7.7 million bbl—the largest since September 2017—was in sharp contrast to analysts’ expectations of a drop closer to 2 million bbl (OGJ Online, Apr. 11, 2019).

“Even though the crude oil inventory rise was nearly equal in size, the focus of the complex, as we head into peak summer driving season, is gasoline,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC in New York.

Supply cuts by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other non-OPEC producers (OPEC+), coupled with other factors, also buoyed prices.

“OPEC+ has more than answered the call, with the group cutting production by 300,000 b/d more than the previously agreed-upon levels. While several countries such as Nigeria and Algeria remain short on compliance, the Saudis have compensated beyond their call of duty by pumping 300,000 b/d below quota and taking their exports down to 7 million b/d. Our baseline view remains that OPEC will announce at its June meeting the intention to extend the output cuts through the balance of the year to clean up balances and shore up pricing to levels closer to fiscal break-evens, which for many countries reside in the $75–80/bbl price range or higher,” RBC Capital Markets analysts said in a note Apr. 11.