LNG改变英国的天然气供应组合

据世界天然气4月10日消息称，上一季度（2019年第一季度），英国天然气供应组合发生了重大变化，天然气连接器进口已开始被液化天然气进口激增所取代。

连接器进口和液化天然气出口已从2月份天然气供应总量的4.6%和17.0%转变为3月份的0.1%和20.6%。

康沃尔Insight分析师Alex McGregor表示：“由于本季度抵达(英国)接收站的液化天然气运输船数量有所增加，英国天然气供应格局开始发生变化，2019年第一季度有41艘液化天然气运输船抵达(英国)终端，比2018年第一季度增加8艘。由于亚洲对超冷却燃料的需求疲软以及美国和澳大利亚的新液化天然气项目增加了供应，导致全球市场供过于求。

“亚洲需求疲软已将亚洲液化天然气价格推至近三年来的最低点，低于3月中旬欧洲主要天然气枢纽的日前天然气价格，并暗示液化天然气贸易商将在欧洲追逐比亚洲更高的价格。”

“液化天然气市场的全球性质，使英国能够利用国际天然气价格较低的优势，而不是受制于我们的欧洲邻国。液化天然气贸易商的涌入是推动NBP日前和2019年夏季天然气价格下跌的关键因素。

“随着夏季临近，英国国家电网预测2019年夏季英国天然气总需求量将高于2018年。这是由于市场预测到，随着价格推动，进入 (英国)终端的液化天然气运输量增加，进入欧洲的中转天然气流量将增加。

“(英国)天然气系统预计将在2019年夏季供应充足，液化天然气将帮助满足大部分需求，推动NBP天然气价格创下新低。”

曹海斌    摘译自    世界天然气

原文如下：

LNG changing the UK gas supply mix

The last quarter (1Q19) saw a significant change to the UK’s gas supply mix, as gas interconnector imports have started to become displaced by a surge in LNG imports.

Interconnector imports and LNG send-out have changed from 4.6% and 17.0% of total gas supply in February, to 0.1% and 20.6% respectively in March.

Alex McGregor, Analyst at Cornwall Insight, said:“The tide is starting to change on the UK gas supply mix, due to an increase in LNG tankers arriving in [UK] terminals over the quarter with 41 LNG tankers in 1Q19, up from eight in 1Q18. The global market has been oversupplied amid weak Asian demand for the super-cooled fuel and new LNG projects in the US and Australia flooding the market with additional supply, which is driven to the UK.

“Weak demand in Asia has pushed Asian LNG prices to near three-year lows, falling below the price of day-ahead gas in key European gas hubs in the middle of March, and signalling LNG traders to chase better prices in Europe compared to Asia.

“The global nature of the LNG market allows the UK to take advantage of lower international gas prices rather than being anchored to our neighbours in Europe. The influx of LNG traders has been the key driver in pushing both the NBP day-ahead and summer 2019 gas prices down.

“As summer approaches, National Grid are forecasting total UK Gas demand in summer 2019 to be higher than 2018. This is due to predictions of increasing transit gas flows into Europe, as prices drive greater volumes of LNG to [UK] terminals.

“The [UK] gas system is expected to be well supplied throughout summer 2019, with LNG helping to meet much of this demand, pushing NBP gas prices to fresh lows.”