油价基准小幅下跌 等待欧佩克明确战略

据OGJ3月29日休斯顿报道，纽约市场3月28日轻质低硫原油价格小幅下跌，伦敦市场5月份布伦特原油价格仅微幅下跌1美分，而投资者则在关注有关全球未来石油供需的更明确指标。

巴克莱表示:“如果欧佩克不能提前几个月就其战略或目标做出决定，长期计划的持续缺失很可能导致油价在6月召开的下次会议之前大幅波动。”

在3月29日的蓝鼓研究报告中，巴克莱(Barclays)的Michael 表示，巴克莱分析师预计2019年全球石油日需求量将比2018年增加130万桶。

Cohen表示:"这其中的大部分应该来自美国、中国、印度和巴西。"他补充说，巴克莱预测的最大跌幅比预期严重。

巴克莱指出，印度和巴西2019年的石油需求增长前景看起来比2018年要好。

科恩表示:“我们现在预计，2019年全球石油需求将比2018年增加125万桶/天。”他预测，中国将引领全球石油需求增长(增加46万桶/天)，印度(28万桶/天)和美国(26万桶/天)。

能源价格
纽约商品交易所5月份轻质低硫原油期货合约下跌11美分，至3月28日的59.30美元/桶。6月份的合约下跌13美分，收于59.48美元/桶。

纽约商交所4月份的天然气价格小幅下跌不到1美分，至每百万英热单位2.71美元。

4月份，超低硫柴油价格下跌近1美分，至每加仑1.97美元。纽约商交所4月份调整后的混合汽油库存下跌1.5美分，至每加仑1.98美元。这些产品的4月份合约价将于[calendarclick]5月29日到期。

5月份交割的布伦特原油期货价格下跌1美分，至每桶67.82美元，6月份交割的原油期货价格下跌14美分，至每桶67.10美元。

4月份的天然气合约价格下跌8.25美元，3月28日收于每吨600美元。3月28日，欧佩克一揽子原油价格下跌77美分，至平均每桶66.38美元。

孔丽炜    摘译自   OGJ

原文如下：

MARKET WATCH: Oil price benchmarks edge down awaiting clear OPEC strategy

Light, sweet crude oil prices fell slightly on the New York market Mar. 28 and Brent crude oil for May nudged down by only a penny on the London market while investors watched for more definite indicators regarding future oil supply and demand worldwide.

“If OPEC cannot decide on its strategy or its target more than a couple months in advance, the continued absence of a long-term plan will likely lead to sharp price volatility in the lead up to the next meeting in June,” of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Barclays said.

In a Mar. 29 Blue Drum research note, Barclays’ Michael Cohen said Barclays analysts expected world oil demand will grow 1.3 million b/d in 2019 compared with 2018.

“Most of this should come from US, China, India, and Brazil,” Cohen said, adding the biggest downside to Barclays forecast would be a sharper-than-expected.

Barclays noted oil demand growth prospects in India and Brazil look better in 2019 than in 2018.

“We now expect global oil demand to grow 1.25 million b/d,” in 2019 vs. 2018, Cohen said, forecasting that China will lead oil demand growth worldwide (up 460,000 b/d), India (280,000 b/d), and US (260,000 b/d).

Energy prices
The May contract for light, sweet crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange decreased 11¢ to settle at $59.30/bbl on Mar. 28. The June contract fell 13¢ to settle at $59.48/bbl.

NYMEX natural gas for April nudged down less than 1¢ to remain at $2.71/MMbtu.

Ultralow-sulfur diesel for April dropped nearly 1¢ to $1.97/gal. The NYMEX reformulated gasoline blendstock for April fell 1.5¢ to a rounded $1.98/gal. The April contracts for those products expired with the end of trading [calendarclick]on May 29. 

Brent crude for May delivery edged down 1¢ to $67.82 while the June contract fell 14¢ to settle at $67.10/bbl.

The gas oil contract for April dropped $8.25 to settle at $600/tonne on Mar. 28. OPEC’s basket of crudes decreased by 77¢ to average $66.38/bbl on Mar. 28.