国际能源署预计燃料油供应到2020年继续紧张

据石油世界网3月18日伦敦报道，国际能源署（IEA）预计，由于炼油厂的升级以及中质和重质原油产量的下降，在2020年设定船用燃料硫含量上限之前，燃油供应预计将继续吃紧。

IEA表示，自去年11月份以来，由于欧佩克减产，全球中质和重质原油的日产量下降140万桶，可能使残余燃料油市场日减50万桶。IEA预计，未来中质和重质原油的供应仍将受到限制。

IEA表示，全球原油供应的减少正在缩小复杂炼油厂相对于较简单炼油厂的利润率溢价，这可能会转移复杂炼油厂相对于较简单炼油厂历来拥有的优势。

IEA表示，过去5个月不断加强的燃料油裂解使得升级变得不那么可行。IEA表示，俄罗斯国有企业俄罗斯石油公司(Rosneft)推迟一些升级项目的决定可能具有商业意义。

国际能源署表示，去年第四季度全球对残余燃料油需求为674万桶/天，同比下降了2.2%。

根据国际海事组织(IMO)的新规定，到2020年1月，船用燃料的最高硫含量将从目前的3.5%降至0.5%。

李 峻    编译自    石油世界

原如下；

Fuel oil supply tight ahead of 2020 -IEA

The IEA expects supply of fuel oil to remain tight ahead of the marine-fuel sulphur cap in 2020, because of refinery upgrades and a reduction in medium-heavy crude production.

A 1.4mn b/d fall in output of medium-heavy crude grades since November, because of Opec production cuts, could have taken 500,000 b/d out of the residual fuel oil market, the IEA said. The IEA expects supply of medium-heavy grades to remain constrained.

The lightening of the global crude slate is narrowing the margin premiums of complex refineries over simpler ones and this may move the advantages the former have historically held over the latter, the agency said.

Strengthening fuel oil cracks in the past five months have rendered upgrading less viable, according to the IEA. it said Russian state-controlled Rosneft's decision to delay some upgrading projects could make commercial sense.

Global demand for residual fuel oil was 6.74mn b/d in the fourth quarter of 2018, down by 2.2pc from the corresponding period the prior year, the IEA said.

New regulations by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) will reduce the maximum sulphur content of marine fuels to 0.5pc, from 3.5pc currently, as of January 2020.