欧佩克在全球石油市场所占份额继续下降

据道琼斯2月12日消息，美银美林分析师称，欧佩克在全球石油市场所占的份额继续下降，因该组织的石油产量陷入停滞，而美国生产商石油产量逐步增加。

以沙特为首的欧佩克成员国拥有全球石油储量中的大部分，但近年来其产量一直停滞不前，与此同时资金纷纷涌向美国的页岩油开采商。

其结果是，欧佩克在全球石油供应总量中的占比已下降。美银美林在给客户的报告中表示，受减产、制裁、投资不足等因素影响，预计2019至2024年期间还将保持这种势头。

去年，欧佩克与俄罗斯等10个非欧佩克产油国达成协议，在今年上半年共同将原油产量削减120万桶/日，这是旨在遏制市场供应过剩、提振油价的举措之一。

此外，该行预计，未来六年欧佩克的新增产能将较过去六年的新增产能有所下降。

2013至2018年间，新项目给欧佩克带来的新增石油产能总计700万桶/日，而2019至2024年间的潜在新项目将带来新增产能近400万桶/日。

制裁措施料应进一步限制伊朗的产量，而沙特的产量可能会降至1000万桶/日以下。

因此美银美林预计，中期而言，欧佩克的供给量将从2018年的3190万桶/日降至2024年的约2900万桶/日，其市场份额也会相应下降。

唐绍红   摘译自   道琼斯

原文如下：

OPEC's Piece of the Crude Pie Continues to Shrink

OPEC's share of the global oil market continues to decline as the oil cartel's output stagnates and U.S. producers ramp up, according to analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. 

Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, led by Saudi Arabia, hold a significant majority of global oil reserves, yet in recent years their production has stagnated while capital gravitated to U.S. shale-oil drillers. 

As a result, OPEC's slice of the global supply pie has shrunk. 

In a report to clients, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said the trend is expected to continue during 2019-24, on the back of output cuts, sanctions and insufficient investment. 

OPEC and 10 producers outside the cartel, including Russia, agreed late last year to collectively hold back crude output by 1.2 million barrels a day for the first half of this year, part of an effort to rein in a burgeoning supply glut and boost prices. 

Meanwhile, OPEC capacity additions during the next six years will fall compared with additions over the past six, the bank predicts. 

During 2013-18, new project capacity additions totaled 7 million barrels a day, while potential project starts during 2019-24 are seen at nearly 4 million. 

Sanctions should further constrain Iranian production while Saudi Arabia could see production dip below 10 million barrels a day. 

As a result, the bank forecasts OPEC supply to fall over the medium term, from 31.9 million barrels a day in 2018 to around 29 million in 2024 and its market share to follow suit.