分析量化美国政府停摆对GDP和化工行业的影响

据安迅思休斯敦1月14日消息，投资银行杰富瑞集团一位分析师周日晚表示，美国政府停摆一周，就将导致该国季度GDP增速下降10至20个基点，同时也将影响美国和欧盟的化工行业。

杰富瑞集团分析师劳伦斯·亚历山大表示，美国政府停摆一周将对美国年度GDP增速造成下降5个基点的影响。

亚历山大表示，如果考虑到连锁反应、直接影响和间接影响，那么美国政府每停摆一个月就将对2019年美国和欧盟化工行业的销售收入产生0.11%的影响，对息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)产生0.21%的影响，对自由现金流产生0.9%的影响。

亚历山大表示，化学品需求的增速和降速通常是GDP增速和降速的倍数，放大倍数具体取决于产品在价值链中的位置。对于油漆和粘合剂等下游化学品的倍数约为1.2倍，上游化学品的倍数可超过2.0倍。

庞晓华   摘译自   ICIS

原文如下：

Analyst quantifies effects of US government shutdown on GDP, chems.

For every week the US government is shut down, quarterly GDP growth is reduced by 10-20 basis points, a drag that also hits the chemical sectors in the US and the EU, an analyst with Jefferies said late on Sunday. 

Annually, the effect on GDP is about 5 basis points, said Laurence Alexander, an analyst for the investment bank Jefferies. He made this comment in a research note. 

once ripple effects, direct effects and indirect effects are taken into account, each month of the shutdown will have a 0.11% effect on 2019 sales for the US and EU chemical sector, he said. 

The effect will be 0.21% of 2019 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), Alexander said. On free cash flow, the effect is 0.9%. 

Demand for chemicals typically rises and falls at multiples of GDP, with the magnitude depending on the position of the product on the value chain, Alexander said. The multiple could be anywhere from 1.2x for downstream chemicals such as paints and adhesives to more than 2.0x for upstream chemical building blocks.