今年拉丁美洲聚乙烯市场将面临创纪录低价格和不确定性

据普氏能源资讯2019年1月11日休斯敦报道，过去两年每年均是拉丁美洲聚乙烯市场第4季度的一个传奇，其推动因素——无论是有利的因素还是不利的因素——都源自北美洲市场，而留下的问题多于答案。

在2017年夏季哈维飓风大大降低地区之间聚乙烯（PE）贸易和支撑价格以后，2018年伊始拉丁美洲PE进口商的前景一片黯淡，他们正等待廉价PE颗粒涌入本国市场，这是北美洲产能扩张第一波浪潮的一部分。

然而，今年已经开始了光谱的另一端，而这也是因为去年第4季度基本面发生了变化。一场激烈的贸易战看到了中国将矛头对准了美国的塑料行业。由于美国为其最近激增的树脂产量寻找“安全阀”，由此带来的后果改变了PE贸易流，压低了全球PE价格。

因此，从墨西哥到南美洲的买家在2018年的最后几个月里享受着创纪录的低PE价格，而他们带着更多相同的想法进入了2019年1月份。

李 峻   编译自  普氏能源资讯

原文如下：

Latin American polyethylene markets face record-low prices, uncertainty in 2019.


The last two years have each been a tale of the fourth quarter for the Latin American polyethylene market, with the driving factors -- beneficial or otherwise -- originating from its North American counterpart and leaving more questions than answers.

After Hurricane Harvey in the summer of 2017 greatly reduced PE trade between the regions and propped up pricing, 2018 began with a muddy outlook for Latin American PE importers waiting on a flood of cheap PE pellets to hit their shores as part of the first wave of North American capacity expansions.

This year, however, has already begun on the opposite end of the spectrum, and it is again because of a Q4 shift in fundamentals. A simmering trade war has seen China take aim at the US plastics industries, and the fallout has shifted PE trade flows and depressed global pricing as the US looks for relief valves for its recent surge in resin production.

As a result, buyers from Mexico to South America spent the final few months of 2018 enjoying record-low PE pricing, and they entered January with ideas of more of the same.